Organized by the IUSSP Scientific Panel on Microsimulation and Agent-based Modelling in Demography and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The workshop will take place from 28 to 30 October 2015. The aim of the three-day workshop is to discuss (a) perspectives on how individuals make decisions and (b) alternative probability models of decision-making processes. Decisions are embedded in a context: Contextual factors and processes influence the decisions individuals make. The outcome of the decision process consists of two components: the decision and the time-to-decision (decision time or deliberation time). The workshop will bring together researchers from different disciplines with different perspectives on decision-making.
Life decisions are made under uncertainty. The collection of evidence and the choice of an alternative take time, resources and experience. The access to these prerequisites differs between people, as does the attitude towards uncertainty: from risk-aversion to risk-seeking. The focus of this workshop will be on modelling the individual decision-making process for decisions that shape the life course. Examples of life decisions are:
• Choice of lifestyle: how and where to live?
• What friends to choose and how to build a friendship network?
• When to start a long-term partnership and who to partner with?
• To get married, cohabit, or “live apart together” (LAT)?
• To have children or not? To have another child?
• What occupation to choose?
• What job offer to accept? Is it time for a job change?
• To buy or to rent a home?
• When to retire?
• To emigrate or not? Where to emigrate?
• How to prepare yourself for life contingencies?
• To save for old-age care or rely on family and friends?
Participants taking a theoretical perspective invited. Probably the most well-known theory is discrete choice, derived from random utility theory. The theory serves to formalize decisions between discrete alternatives whose properties are not perfectly known and whose properties are perceived differently by different individuals. Recent extensions include hybrid choice models that consider the process and context of decision-making, and the evidence accumulation model, which focuses on the decision time and trade-off between decision time and decision quality. Extensions of the random utility theory that include attitudes, beliefs and context, move the theory closer to Fishbein and Ajzen’s theory of reasoned action, which originated in social psychology.
Empirical contributions are invited. Empirical studies of the dependence of individual decisions on life-course events and social networks are of particular interest. Finally, researchers who approach decision-making from a modeller’s perspective are also invited. Of interest is microsimulation models and agent-based models of life choices, including those related to decision-making under uncertainty. In addition, discussion on which decision theories and algorithms are testable and what empirically relevant predictors may serve to improve the validity of models are wanted.
Professor Joan Walker (University of California, Berkeley) will deliver a keynote address entitled “Modeling Choice” on 28 October 2015.
If interested in presenting a paper, please submit online by 15 July 2015 a short 150-word abstract and upload an extended abstract (2-5 pages, including tables) or a full paper, which must be unpublished and not already submitted to a journal for publication.
Submission should be made by the author who will attend the workshop. If the paper is co-authored, please include the names of your co-authors in your submission form (in the appropriate order).
The working language of the workshop will be English. Abstracts and final papers should therefore be submitted and presented in English. Online submissions: http://www.iussp.org/en/iussp-seminar-submissions
There will be the opportunity to publish an accepted paper in a special issue or a book; details will be provided. The deadline for submission of full papers will be shortly after the workshop.
Participants are expected to pay their own transportation and living costs. However, a limited number of scholarships are available on a competitive basis for outstanding researchers and for those applicants who might otherwise not be able to come. To be considered for financial support please indicate this at the end of short abstract. Please also include if able to come without financial aid from our side.
For further information please contact Anna Klabunde: decisionmaking@demogr.mpg.de.