The CD-ROM is part of the population-development-environment (PDE) framework of analysis and it presents major research findings, which are based on computer simulation models. These models are calibrated on data from the 1990s and test alternative long-term development paths (to the year 2021) of population, development and environment interactions. Four main research findings for Botswana and Namibia: There will be little future population growth; The more educated segment of the labor force will grow rapidly; HIV/AIDS will not cause an economic crisis; The governments can afford programs that provide HIV medication to all who need it; Even with HIV/AIDS, stress on water supply will increase. Five major findings for Mozambique: By 2020, HIV/AIDS will reduce the population size by 22%-31% ; HIV/AIDS will have little effect on the student-teacher ratios in primary schools; The more educated labor force will rapidly increase over time even with the expected levels of HIV/AIDS; In the base case, HIV/AIDS reduces real annual GDP growth between the years 2000-2020 from 6.6% to 5.7% ; Decreased population growth, due to HIV/AIDS, will not save Maputo's water system. The models are designed to help policy makers, stakeholders, NGOs, researchers, and others to look at possible future development paths. The findings have been discussed in both academic and political circles at the national and international levels, and this discussion may lead to closer collaboration among countries in the Southern African region on their vital longer-term challenges.
Botswana's Future, Mozambique's Future, Namibia's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development - Challenges in the Era of HIV/AIDS