Seasonal, weather shocks and the timing of births and child mortality in Senegal.

This paper uses data from Senegal to examine two complementary explanations of seasonal fertility based upon the inability of households to smooth consumption and labor time over the crop seasons. First, if the value of time varies seasonally parents may wish to shift births to those months of the year when the shadow value of time, particularly women's time, is relatively low. Second, if parents care about the survival chances of their potential births, and, facing highly seasonal income streams, they are not able to smooth consumption, they may time conceptions so that births occur after harvests have been gathered and monthly income is high. In rural Senegal, births occur disproportionately in the dry season months which is consistent with both of these hypotheses. If the inability to smooth consumption and labor demand over the seasons is an important cause of the seasonal pattern of births, then unanticipated weather shocks are also likely to alter the timing of births. (Author's abstract)