Change in Ecuadorian farm composition over time: Population pressures, migration, and changes in land use

Author's abstract: Objective: Provide preliminary analysis for the environmental implications of increasing population pressures in the Ecuadorian Amazon over the period 1990 to 1999. We examine human impacts on the environment of greater numbers of people and farm units (Finca Madre's) on a finite land area over time given differences in farm family size and composition as well as location relative to roads and towns/markets, off-farm work, topography, and soil quality. Data: The data are from household surveys collected in 1999 from migrant settlers living on plots in the northern Ecuadorian provinces of Sucumbios, Napo and Orrellana. Methods: Descriptive tables are developed to portray the changes that have occurred over time. Multivariate regression in SAS version 6.12 was used to model the percent of forest remaining on a Finca Madre. Three sets of independent variables, corresponding to three sets of demographic variables, were used to predict deforestation. A square root transformation of percent of forest remaining was used as the response to help stabilize the variance estimates and satisfy model assumptions. Results: Significant changes in farm composition have occurred since 1990. Mean forest cover on a Finca Madre has decreased from 62% in 1990 to 46% in 1999. Over that same time period, mean pastureland has increased from 14% to 21% indicating only half the loss of forest could be attributed to increased cattle as a maximum. Mean cropland (perennials and annuals combined) also increased from 14% to 18% and the amount of land in fallow has increased from 3% to 6%. Regression models indicate that population, soil, topography, distance to market, and size of the Finca Madre are significant indicators to predict forest coverage.